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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July
Index Points to Moderate Growth in Second Half
NEW YORK, Aug. 22, 2019 /PRNewswire/ –The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 percent in July to 112.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in June, and a 0.1 percent decline in May.
“The US LEI increased in July, following back-to-back modest declines. Housing permits, unemployment insurance claims, stock prices and the Leading Credit Index were the major drivers of the improvement,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “However, the manufacturing sector continues exhibiting signs of weakness and the yield spread was negative for a second consecutive month. While the LEI suggests the US economy will continue to expand in the second half of 2019, it is likely to do so at a moderate pace.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in July to 106.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent increase in May.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in July to 108.5 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent decline in May.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes | ||||||||
2019 | 6-month | |||||||
May | Jun | Jul | Jan to Jul | |||||
Leading Index | 111.7 | r | 111.6 | r | 112.2 | p | ||
Percent Change | -0.1 | r | -0.1 | r | 0.5 | p | 0.8 | |
Diffusion | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 70.0 | ||||
Coincident Index | 105.8 | 106.0 | r | 106.2 | p | |||
Percent Change | 0.1 | r | 0.2 | r | 0.2 | p | 0.6 | |
Diffusion | 87.5 | 100.0 | 75.0 | 50.0 | ||||
Lagging Index | 107.3 | r | 107.8 | r | 108.5 | p | ||
Percent Change | -0.1 | r | 0.5 | r | 0.6 | p | 1.6 | |
Diffusion | 50.0 | 57.1 | 64.3 | 71.4 | ||||
p Preliminary r Revised | ||||||||
Indexes equal 100 in 2016 | ||||||||
Source: The Conference Board | ||||||||
SOURCE The Conference Board
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